Monday, February 22, 2016

Who Benefits From Bush Withdraw?

     The "Let's make a point crowd" is celebrating Donald Trump's victory in the South Carolina primary last weekend. Marco Rubio and his supporters are also celebrating a second place finish in said primary contest. The Ted Cruz campaign is trying desperately to convince themselves that their third place finish in South Carolina is not a harbinger of a campaign that may be running afoul of a Republican electorate that may be coming to grips with a reality that if the Republicans do not sport a candidate that can win in November, the Democrat will most assuredly win. The Carson campaign, which ever increasingly is an army of one, is vowing to fight until the end. John Kasich is hoping to hang in until the Ohio primary on March 15, hoping for the surge he has promised supporters is coming. And Jeb Bush has called it quits in his bid to be the third Bush to become president.
     The Jeb Bush campaign ending in a crash and burn style reminiscent of the Hindenburg serves to illustrate two very important items. One, that money in politics does not have as much influence as some wish to convince the gullible that it does, and two, that Donald Trump has hit a ceiling in this campaign which may reverse itself into a floor as more candidates drop from the race. I have always maintained that the Trump campaign is one that depends on a crowded field. And that a candidate which has the highest negative numbers in presidential history can not even win his Party's nomination, much less the general election, with such animus aimed at him by a majority of Americans.
     The most likely beneficiary of the Jeb Bush withdraw from the race is Marco Rubio. In fact, with each of the remaining candidates, their exits from the race would most likely be a boon to the Rubio campaign. His recent surge and the sobering up of the Republican electorate that they must nominate someone who can actually beat Hillary Clinton, bodes well for a Rubio nomination. With Rubio poised to gain more support, and Trump having hit his limit of support, the two thirds of Republican primary voters who not only do not support Trump but have a vomiting reflex at the sound of his voice, will inevitably give their support to Senator Rubio.
     Donald Trump is many things, conservative is certainly a proven commodity he does not posses. Marco Rubio has that specific commodity in spades, and provably so. So why do so many so-called conservatives support Trump? It is simple: They care more about making a point and sticking it to the so-called establishment that has been demonized by some in Right-Wing radio, than nominating someone who can win. Not that congressional Republicans have not made mistakes, but the Trump supporters, and to a degree Cruz supporters, have succumb to the temptation of making themselves feel good instead of actually doing what is good for the country.
     The best that Trump can hope for is that Rubio does not get the required delegates, which will mean a brokered convention in Cleveland this July. After which when he loses such a battle he can go third Party based on the Republicans "treating him unfairly." This of course will precipitate a Democrat win and all those self righteous emotional cripples that support Trump can get on their high horses and say they told everyone that Rubio would not win. Not acknowledging that they would be the cause of such a loss. But delusion is the main ingredient in the Trump stew, and his supporters lap it up and ask for seconds.

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