A Thirty Year Drought For Conservatives

     The mid-term election is just over a month away, and Republicans are hoping they can maintain their majority in the House and wrestle control of the Senate away from Democrats. Democrats are pleading with their base to get out and vote or else, in the words of Nancy Pelosi, "It will be the end of civilization as we know it." The former Speaker of the House's hyperbole aside, this election is very important to the future of the United States. But is also an anniversary of sorts.
     This mid-term election marks the thirtieth anniversary of the last time that the Republican Party ran a conservative for the presidency, a man by the name of Ronald Reagan. In the subsequent seven presidential elections, the Republicans' moderate candidates only came out on top three times. One of those electoral victories was in 1988 when George H. W. Bush benefited from being President Reagan's number two for eight years, as well as the Democrats running the thoroughly unelectable Michael Dukakis.
     The other two presidential wins for the Republicans was George W. Bush, who benefited in 2000 from having as his opponent, Vice President Al Gore, who was sullied by the stain of President Clinton's impeachment. In 2004, Mr. Bush benefited from being a wartime president whom the public did not want to kick out of office mid stream. He also benefited greatly from the Democrats decision to run John Kerry, the man who could have been the understudy to Lurch on the Adams Family.
     Even though this year's mid-terms are not about the president, they are a prelude to the presidential campaign of 2016. An election that Republicans are going to have a hard time winning if they choose a moderate. The Democrats have the distinct advantage of having thoroughly transformed the agencies of the federal government, like the Internal Revenue Service, into electoral shills for whomever is the Democrat nominee in that election. The Republicans are going to have to win convincingly to counter the cheating in which the Democrats are sure to engage.
     The road to an overwhelming victory for Republicans is paved with the concrete of conservatism, not the loose gravel of moderation. We will know the outcome of the 2016 election by the end of the Republican primary process. If a Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Rob Portman is the nominee, the election is lost. If the Republican base is successful in choosing the nominee instead of the establishment, then the 32 year drought for conservatives will end with the deluge of electoral victory and the long dry spell will be washed away. This will not only be a victory for conservatives, but for the country and the cause of Liberty.

Do Republicans Really Have A Lock In The Mid-Terms ?

     The stale wind of complacency, and the over-active imagination of wishful thinking, have lately been rushing over those on the Right in gale force. Even some stalwart Conservative radio talk show hosts seem to suggest that Republicant control of both the House of Representatives and the United States Senate is just a matter of academics, and this Fall's mid-term elections are just a formality. They site waning support for the president, national disgust with ObamaCare, and a sluggish-at-best economy that just can not seem to shift out of neutral. Not to mention the historically low voter turnout for the party in control of the White House during mid-term elections.
     The preceding are all valid points, and yet they still do not make me any more sanguine about the Republicants chances for attaining a majority in the Senate, and holding onto as large of a majority in the House. Primary to my trepidation about the mid-terms is the fact that in the last 10 years Democrats have bested Republicants in every national election except 2010. In that year, the Tea Party was responsible for John Boehner and his troupe of misfits succeeding in wresting control of the House away from Nancy Pelosi and her band of merry socialists. The recent passage of ObamaCare motivated traditional Republicant voters to show up at the polls and elect those representatives who promised to repeal the nasty thing.
     During the past four years, John Boehner and the rest of his Democrat-lites in the House, and their counterparts in the Senate, have disenfranchised many of those voters who gave them control of half the congress. Added to this is the Republicant establishment's constant attacks, snarky comments, and downright public distaste for the Tea Party, who gave them their only national electoral victory of the last decade. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.
     As for the effects of ObamaCare on the Democrat party, it has become ensconced in the fabric of American public life. Many Americans are now dependent on its subsidies and will not vote against their own self-interest in favor of the larger ideal of limited government. This was the danger of the Republicant establishment not supporting those like Ted Cruz who sought to stop ObamaCare before the spigot of federal subsidies was activated. Now it will be near impossible, not only to repeal ObamaCare, but for Republicants to win elections being opposed to it. Because, they run the risk of alienating their own voters if they do not oppose ObamaCare, and alienating everyone else if they do.
     Some on the Right have become giddy with examples of main stream media sources being critical of the Obama regime. This breaking-of-the-ranks by some on the Left is seen as weakness in the Democrat party. But in actuality it is just a slavish media trying to salvage some remnants of the thread of credibility they possessed before they blindly played a major role in electing Barack Obama twice. Once the 2016 presidential campaign commences, most likely the day after the mid-terms, the media will once again be extolling the "virtues" of the Democrat candidate and manufacturing dirt on the Republicant.
      For Republicants to win control of the Senate and keep control of the House, they must distinguish themselves from the Democrats. They must become what Ronald Reagan termed as a party that "Raises the banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which make it unmistakably clear where we stand on all issues troubling the people." The Tea Party contingent, along with other Conservatives in the Republicant party, wish to paint broadly with bold colors. Unfortunately the establishment wishes to lead the party down the path of pale pastels that make electoral victory much less likely.     

Republicans Hope For Jolly Mid-Terms

     Republicant David Jolly had barely been crowned the victor in Florida's 13th district's special election for the vacated House seat of deceased congressman Bill Young, when the champagne corks on the Right began to fly uncontrollably. The most oft repeated refrain was that Mr. Jolly's victory was a harbinger of what was to come for Republicants in this November's mid-term elections.
The theory goes that if a flawed candidate like Jolly, a former lobbyist and recent 41 year old divorcee with a girlfriend 14 years his junior, could win in a district that voted solidly for Barack Obama in 2012, then Republicants will glide to easy victory over the Democrats in both the House and Senate races this Fall.
     Mr. Jolly was not supported by the Republicant establishment in Washington during the primary, in fact he was their favorite whipping post during that process. As far as his election victory being a harbinger of better things for his party in November, I can not say one way or the other. I do not think anyone can accurately predict, based on one event, the support of voters this Fall. Mr. Jolly was  supported by the Tea Party, placing another victory firmly in the column of that oft abused, and mis-characterized movement, both by the Left and the Right.
     Assured victory for Republicants this Fall is not unequivocal as a result of this special election, but it does illustrate two things very aptly as far as I am concerned. One is that the Tea Party is not some extremist organization that only supports radical candidates as they have been accused by both the Republicant and Democrat establishments. Mr. Jolly was a committed centrist in the mold of his predecessor, Bill Young. Secondly, this victory, along with the many others by Tea Party-supported candidates since 2010, shows the electoral influence and heft possessed by members of that movement.
     If Mr. Jolly's victory is a bell weather of this Fall's mid-terms, it disproves the supposition by some pundits that the Republicants will have to find more to run on than simply replacing ObamaCare. David Jolly constructed his campaign almost entirely of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act. Even his Democrat opponent, Alex Sink, campaigned on "fixing" the major problems with ObamaCare.
     Maybe David Jolly's victory will turn out to be an augury of November's mid-term elections. However, I am very solicitous over the frolicsome predictions of a mass Republicant victory that I heard yesterday by many in talk radio. If there are two things I know about politics they are that nothing is a sure thing, and Republicants recently have found new ways in which to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.